Summary Inflation is transitory, but the worst might be right in front of us for H1 2022, stagflation. The Fed taper is very likely to cause stock and bond market reactions that are rather severe given heavy retail participation in the markets. The high levels of margin and call option in the market, and now Millennials having learned how to bet on a decline, means a correction could be fast and steep. The good news is that once the downward […]Read More
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The hyper stimulated “reopen” trade is feeding narratives that are simply wrong. Traders looking to find greater fools are spinning tales from soundbites, tweets and out of context data into today’s echo chamber half truths. Here is a truth to know and understand…Read More
The rally off of the almost bear market correction of late 2018, has led to a near euphoric take by many investors as 2019 had a large gain. In reality, the stock market moved up about 20% over the past 2 years, or about 10% on average per year. Exactly in line with historical averages.Read More
2014 could be another crossroads in the economy and markets as we continue to emerge from the Great Recession. I am more concerned about mounting global financial risks again, I just want to reiterate that the United States sits, and frankly all of North America sits, in a very good comparative position. If we set ideology aside and focus on improving standard of living for everybody willing to work for it, the American Dream will continue.Read More
The Great Recession born of The Financial Crisis is lingering in many parts of America and the world. Investing will take perseverance and a forward looking approach. There will be more corrections, but we must try to use that volatility to our advantage. To that end, technology and eventually, clean energy, will be major secular trends to embrace.Read More
Beginning in 1999 and culminating in 2006, credit became very easy to attain. Credit had in fact been pretty easy by historical standards since the middle 1980s, but in 1999 became very easy, and eventually, easy to the point of being silly in 2005 and 2006. There is enough blame to go around as to why credit loosened up to the point of absurdity, but in general it was the politicians, banks, investment banks, shadow banks and the Federal Reserve who are mostly at fault.Read More