Over the past few years I have been playing in the World Series of Poker professional circuit. I've played poker since I was a teenager. People have been saying I've been lucky for 35 years. It's not luck.
One of the key lessons I have learned is that sometimes, the risk is to high to play or go all in. At those times, even if you have a good hand, it's time to fold and wait for a better hand.
The stock market is a lot like that now. Even though the narrative is that the Fed has everyone's back, I don't think that is so. I believe that what we are seeing are small investors who believe that narrative buy from those who know better. Consider this chart:
What that chart shows is that big money, the type that resides in Family Offices (private investment firms for the super wealthy), private equity and other financial institutions are selling assets to small investors. That's never worked out well.
Sometime in the second half of 2020 I believe we start to see the true fundamentals of the market play out. For now, I am very conservative and treading water biding time, that is, waiting for a better hand. When the next stock market correction comes, we will use a "barbell strategy" of investing in the growth stocks of tomorrow and the value stocks, many resource based, that pay dividends.
Below is a presentation about Investing In The 2nd Half Of 2020.