These are my periodic letters, investment notes and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.
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Expect one regular monthly summary piece and occasional periodic reports.
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Beginning in 1999 and culminating in 2006, credit became very easy to attain. Credit had in fact been pretty easy by historical standards since the middle 1980s, but in 1999 became very easy, and eventually, easy to the point of being silly in 2005 and 2006. There is enough blame to go around as to why credit loosened up to the point of absurdity, but in general it was the politicians, banks, investment banks, shadow banks and the Federal Reserve who are mostly at fault.
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2007 was a very eventful and fitful year in the stock and bond markets around the world. Credit markets finally started to shake the fleas that had taken residence over several years of record breaking money creation by government, lending institutions and a quasi-banking system composed of hedge funds and private equity firms. The volatility we saw in 2007 is not likely to subside in the short run. In fact, I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector.
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