In last year’s annual letter I broke tradition and wrote a piece full of predictions. Of the predictions, most of which were longer term in nature, some have come true already, others will take more time, a few will not come true. So, as time sorts out of what I said a year ago, we will take some time to review what went on in 2010 and how that will impact us the next few years. But first, take a second to reread my January 2008 letter where I warned “I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector.” If you never read that letter, now would be a good time because some of the things I am going to say will be very challenging and that letter will help you understand my perspective.Read More
Investment Articles & Special Reports
These are my periodic letters, investment notes and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.
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The Great Recession born of The Financial Crisis is lingering in many parts of America and the world. Investing will take perseverance and a forward looking approach. There will be more corrections, but we must try to use that volatility to our advantage. To that end, technology and eventually, clean energy, will be major secular trends to embrace.Read More
Beginning in 1999 and culminating in 2006, credit became very easy to attain. Credit had in fact been pretty easy by historical standards since the middle 1980s, but in 1999 became very easy, and eventually, easy to the point of being silly in 2005 and 2006. There is enough blame to go around as to why credit loosened up to the point of absurdity, but in general it was the politicians, banks, investment banks, shadow banks and the Federal Reserve who are mostly at fault.Read More
2007 was a very eventful and fitful year in the stock and bond markets around the world. Credit markets finally started to shake the fleas that had taken residence over several years of record breaking money creation by government, lending institutions and a quasi-banking system composed of hedge funds and private equity firms. The volatility we saw in 2007 is not likely to subside in the short run. In fact, I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector.Read More