Investment Articles & Special Reports

These are my periodic letters, investment notes and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.

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2018: Rising Risk — But Upside Still

The Markets Are Topping, But Where’s THE Top? If you read my most recent article The 12 Sells Of Christmas, then you saw the charts I put up showing the similarity between the current bull market and the one from just before the financial crisis. You also saw the CAPE ratio chart.

Here are some more scary charts. And, if you don’t find them scary, you don’t scare easy enough, so pay attention and have a little respect and fear of what these charts are implying.

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Freedom From OPEC Is Getting Much Closer

The price of producing solar and wind energy is now about equal to the price of gas and coal. This excludes all the clean-up and pollution costs of gas and coal. It is clear that the fossil fuel age has entered its end game.

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2017: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency

2017 marks the beginning of a pivotal period for the global economy and geopolitical landscape. Over the past 40 years, the underpinnings of expanding global trade — globalization — has led to unprecedented economic growth. The remarkably uneven distribution of that growth and wealth creation, however, has finally caught up with the system. The world is facing a rise of populism with overt nationalist leanings in many countries — much like the period between World War and World War II. Onto that stage, enter President Trump.

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Understanding and Investing in the “Slow Growth Forever” Global Economy

“Slow Growth Forever” is the central theme that will impact investing for decades. Demographics lead the economy. Higher birth rates and more people escaping poverty is good for economic activity, but potentially bad for resource scarcity.

To support growth long-term, we will have to find sustainable ways to rebuild the world. It won’t be easy with so many entrenched interests.

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Average Stock 2015

2016: A Stealth Bear Market Crashes In

Happy New Year! For me I am glad to see 2015 go. I had a heart injury, a house fire and have been early on several stock picks. Such is life. I survived, nobody got hurt in the fire, I’m back in my house and early doesn’t usually mean wrong if you are patient.

This is very important reading in my opinion, so please get a beverage and hunker down for a half hour. At least one topic I’m going to cover could spawn a book, but I will keep it as short as possible.

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2015 Will Be More Volatile

Before I get started with what to pay attention to in 2015, I would just like to say Happy New Year and take a look back at 2014.

In my January 2014 letter I stated that “While I am not convinced we have any major asset bubbles that are easy to identify, there are massive risks to global economics, some of which that are hidden in plain sight that concern me greatly.” Those risks have only grown over the past year.

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S&P 500

2014 Another Crossroads

2014 could be another crossroads in the economy and markets as we continue to emerge from the Great Recession. I am more concerned about mounting global financial risks again, I just want to reiterate that the United States sits, and frankly all of North America sits, in a very good comparative position. If we set ideology aside and focus on improving standard of living for everybody willing to work for it, the American Dream will continue.

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2013: We’re Still Here

Happy New Year! The new year will be a lot like an old year. Not 2012, but quite likely a lot like 2011, marked by increasing volatility and possibly a correction, before we begin a new leg higher in the markets. I reserve the right to be off by a year, but given a host of reasons covered in my year opening article for MarketWatch – Prepare for Zero Real Growth in the U.S. in 2013 (please read it) – it is time to err on the side of caution again as other investors decide to get back into the markets after several years.

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2012 Another Year the World Won’t End

Throughout 2011 we heard proclamations of doom and gloom from market pundits to gold traders to vote seeking politicians to assorted snake oil salesmen to the converts of ancient Mayan religion. Each has a version of a coming apocalypse, some including hyperinflation, 50% unemployment, widespread famine, world war or complete destruction of the globe due to galactic forces beyond our control. In my estimation, each is about as likely as the other to occur, that is, not very likely at all.

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