Letters & Special Reports

These are my periodic letters, investment notes and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.

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Expect one regular monthly summary piece and occasional periodic reports.

You can also follow me on Seeking Alpha and my weekly webinars that I post to YouTube.

AT&T SWOT Report

AT&T is a very misunderstood company that is sitting on some very valuable assets. While I’m not a fan of the DirecTV deal, the Warner deal could bring huge benefits either through growth, as a tool to grow 5G and fiber business or being merged into another media company – or all three. Time will tell, but I’m willing to collect the fat dividend while I wait to see.

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Q4 2018 Quarterly Review & Outlook

The years of stimulus by the Federal Reserve is being used by the economy finally. After years of the perception of a not-business-friendly administration, President Trump has clearly unleashed some animal spirits.

The tax cuts are certainly having an impact as consumer spending is strong, and corporations are doing well (more on that below). The tax cuts will only have a temporary impact, however, and we will need to monitor that in the next year or two.

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2018: Rising Risk — But Upside Still

The Markets Are Topping, But Where’s THE Top? If you read my most recent article The 12 Sells Of Christmas, then you saw the charts I put up showing the similarity between the current bull market and the one from just before the financial crisis. You also saw the CAPE ratio chart.

Here are some more scary charts. And, if you don’t find them scary, you don’t scare easy enough, so pay attention and have a little respect and fear of what these charts are implying.

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Freedom From OPEC Is Getting Much Closer

The price of producing solar and wind energy is now about equal to the price of gas and coal. This excludes all the clean-up and pollution costs of gas and coal. It is clear that the fossil fuel age has entered its end game.

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2017: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency

2017 marks the beginning of a pivotal period for the global economy and geopolitical landscape. Over the past 40 years, the underpinnings of expanding global trade — globalization — has led to unprecedented economic growth. The remarkably uneven distribution of that growth and wealth creation, however, has finally caught up with the system. The world is facing a rise of populism with overt nationalist leanings in many countries — much like the period between World War and World War II. Onto that stage, enter President Trump.

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Understanding and Investing in the “Slow Growth Forever” Global Economy

“Slow Growth Forever” is the central theme that will impact investing for decades. Demographics lead the economy. Higher birth rates and more people escaping poverty is good for economic activity, but potentially bad for resource scarcity.

To support growth long-term, we will have to find sustainable ways to rebuild the world. It won’t be easy with so many entrenched interests.

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Average Stock 2015

2016: A Stealth Bear Market Crashes In

Happy New Year! For me I am glad to see 2015 go. I had a heart injury, a house fire and have been early on several stock picks. Such is life. I survived, nobody got hurt in the fire, I’m back in my house and early doesn’t usually mean wrong if you are patient.

This is very important reading in my opinion, so please get a beverage and hunker down for a half hour. At least one topic I’m going to cover could spawn a book, but I will keep it as short as possible.

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2015 Will Be More Volatile

Before I get started with what to pay attention to in 2015, I would just like to say Happy New Year and take a look back at 2014.

In my January 2014 letter I stated that “While I am not convinced we have any major asset bubbles that are easy to identify, there are massive risks to global economics, some of which that are hidden in plain sight that concern me greatly.” Those risks have only grown over the past year.

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