Investment Articles & Special Reports

These are my periodic letters, investment notes and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.

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Kirk’s Crystal Ball Into 2022

(This is a modified article I wrote for Do-it-yourself investors. If it’s uneven in a few spots, I apologize. I have edited it to be client focused, I just might have missed a spot or two.) In December 2017, I talked about the futility of making forecasts. But, everybody loves a prediction, so I made several.  The most important thing about forecasting and predictions is that it can help you prepare for various scenarios. By thinking through things ahead of time, […]

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Q4 2021 Outlook & Game Plan

Summary Inflation is transitory, but the worst might be right in front of us for H1 2022, stagflation. The Fed taper is very likely to cause stock and bond market reactions that are rather severe given heavy retail participation in the markets. The high levels of margin and call option in the market, and now Millennials having learned how to bet on a decline, means a correction could be fast and steep. The good news is that once the downward […]

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The Inflation Narratives Are Probably Wrong

The hyper stimulated “reopen” trade is feeding narratives that are simply wrong. Traders looking to find greater fools are spinning tales from soundbites, tweets and out of context data into today’s echo chamber half truths. Here is a truth to know and understand…

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Companies We Are Watching

Here are some of the companies we are watching for possible investment, or that we have already invested in. Broken down into convenient lists, including sustainable growth and dividend collectors. Register for access.

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2021 Outlook

Each year I write my “futile forecasts” for the coming year. The idea behind “futile” is that most forecasting gets looked at the wrong way. It’s not about getting some number right at the end of the year It’s about navigating change. Register for access.

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Using REITs In Your Portfolio

REITs are favorites among dividend investors. But there is a fallacy that real estate as an asset class outperforms stocks in general. That is not true. Over most time frames, REITS as a group trail the broader stock market. REITs have use for income and growth, but we must be very selective.

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Freedom To Fold And Wait For A Better Hand

Over the past few years I have been playing in the World Series of Poker professional circuit. I’ve played poker since I was a teenager. People have been saying I’ve been lucky for 35 years. It’s not luck. One of the key lessons I have learned is that sometimes, the risk is to high to play or go all in. At those times, even if you have a good hand, it’s time to fold and wait for a better hand. […]

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Investing In The 2nd Half Of 2020

The following report covers where we are in the economy and markets. It has become clear to me that another correction is coming of some significance. The problem we face is whether the combination of Fed money and a potential medical miracle can stave off the worse case scenarios. I believe to an extent they can. However, that still leaves room for the bear market to resume. Speculative excess is high and the result is unlikely to be different this […]

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Quarterly Outlook & Game Plan (April 2020): Coronavirus, The Economy And Investing

Summary Structural slow growth was met by a cyclical slowdown and then whacked by the biggest economic shock in modern history. There are more economic shoes to drop and a second wave of Coronavirus is the most dangerous risk. Helicopter money came early as it was necessary to fend off a collapse. I suspect the helicopter money will propel a high growth period in the early to middle 2020s. Stocks are overvalued and investors are over zealous, there is likely […]

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