Articles by: Kirk Spano

Q4 2021 Outlook & Game Plan

Summary Inflation is transitory, but the worst might be right in front of us for H1 2022, stagflation. The Fed taper is very likely to cause stock and bond market reactions that are rather severe given heavy retail participation in the markets. The high levels of margin and call option in the market, and now Millennials having learned how to bet on a decline, means a correction could be fast and steep. The good news is that once the downward […]

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The Inflation Narratives Are Probably Wrong

The hyper stimulated “reopen” trade is feeding narratives that are simply wrong. Traders looking to find greater fools are spinning tales from soundbites, tweets and out of context data into today’s echo chamber half truths. Here is a truth to know and understand…

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2021 Outlook

Each year I write my “futile forecasts” for the coming year. The idea behind “futile” is that most forecasting gets looked at the wrong way. It’s not about getting some number right at the end of the year It’s about navigating change. Register for access.

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Using REITs In Your Portfolio

REITs are favorites among dividend investors. But there is a fallacy that real estate as an asset class outperforms stocks in general. That is not true. Over most time frames, REITS as a group trail the broader stock market. REITs have use for income and growth, but we must be very selective.

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2018: Rising Risk — But Upside Still

The Markets Are Topping, But Where’s THE Top? If you read my most recent article The 12 Sells Of Christmas, then you saw the charts I put up showing the similarity between the current bull market and the one from just before the financial crisis. You also saw the CAPE ratio chart.

Here are some more scary charts. And, if you don’t find them scary, you don’t scare easy enough, so pay attention and have a little respect and fear of what these charts are implying.

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Freedom From OPEC Is Getting Much Closer

The price of producing solar and wind energy is now about equal to the price of gas and coal. This excludes all the clean-up and pollution costs of gas and coal. It is clear that the fossil fuel age has entered its end game.

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2017: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency

2017 marks the beginning of a pivotal period for the global economy and geopolitical landscape. Over the past 40 years, the underpinnings of expanding global trade — globalization — has led to unprecedented economic growth. The remarkably uneven distribution of that growth and wealth creation, however, has finally caught up with the system. The world is facing a rise of populism with overt nationalist leanings in many countries — much like the period between World War and World War II. Onto that stage, enter President Trump.

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Understanding and Investing in the “Slow Growth Forever” Global Economy

“Slow Growth Forever” is the central theme that will impact investing for decades. Demographics lead the economy. Higher birth rates and more people escaping poverty is good for economic activity, but potentially bad for resource scarcity.

To support growth long-term, we will have to find sustainable ways to rebuild the world. It won’t be easy with so many entrenched interests.

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Average Stock 2015

2016: A Stealth Bear Market Crashes In

Happy New Year! For me I am glad to see 2015 go. I had a heart injury, a house fire and have been early on several stock picks. Such is life. I survived, nobody got hurt in the fire, I’m back in my house and early doesn’t usually mean wrong if you are patient.

This is very important reading in my opinion, so please get a beverage and hunker down for a half hour. At least one topic I’m going to cover could spawn a book, but I will keep it as short as possible.

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